Published 4/29/2024

Processing Making Slow, Steady Progress

Plastics processing activity didn’t make its way into expansion territory in March, but seems headed in that direction.

economics

Jan Schafer

Director of Market Research

New orders, production and backlog — all steadily posting slowing contraction — drove the Index in March. Supplier deliveries lengthened faster again, potentially signaling higher demand in March. Exports and employment were essentially nonfactors, staying relatively stable in the contraction zone during March.

FIG 1 Plastics processing activity contracted more slowly in March, as did custom processing activity for the fifth month straight.

Business optimism took its first dip in five months in March, but barely so, such that it was more of a leveling. Overall business activity for custom plastics processing paralleled total plastics processing in March, landing at the same value.

FIG 2 New orders, production, and backlog all contracted at a slower rate in March. Source: Gardner Intelligence

ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Jan Schafer is director of market research for Gardner Business Media, parent company of both Plastics Technology magazine and Gardner Intelligence. She has led research and analysis in several industries for over 30 years. She earned a bachelor’s degree in psychology from Purdue University and an MBA from Indiana University. She credits Procter & Gamble for 15 years of the best business education. Contact: 513-527-8952; jschafer@gardnerweb.com.

Numbers in Perspective

The U.S. economy outperformed expectations in 2023, expanding by 2.5% in real GDP. Despite facing higher borrowing costs, aggregate supply has significantly improved, indicating a prospect for continued growth in 2024. This improvement could potentially lead to an upswing in plastics production, as the balance between aggregate demand and supply further improves.

However, the first quarter of 2024 indicates little deviation in plastics manufacturing from previous periods. The plastics processing GBI has consistently remained below the 50-growth threshold, indicating neither significant expansion nor contraction. This trend has persisted for several quarters. Despite this, there has been a gradual increase in GBI values since January this year.

Perc Pineda

Similarly, the monthly Industrial Production Index for plastic products manufacturing (2017=100) has hovered close to the base since March 2023. In seven of 12 months, however, production fell below 100, while exceeding it in the other months. During these downturns, the deviations from the base were minimal—99.7 this past February and 98.8 in January. Overall, the deviation below the base since March 2022 stayed within a narrow margin of 0.1 to 1.2.

These production pullbacks are more significant when compared to the 19 consecutive months of gains since June 2021. During this period, plastics production saw year-on-year increases of up to 8.0%. Such rapid growth proved unsustainable as inventories built up. While plastics production could see an upward trend this year, it is unlikely to see a steep trendline. Nevertheless, it will be an improvement from 2023.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Perc Pineda, Ph.D., chief economist of the Plastics Industry Association (PLASTICS), is an industry thought leader and PLASTICS’ primary expert and spokesperson on the U.S. and global economy, industry research, statistics, trends and forecasts. He produces PLASTICS’ two annual flagship publications — Size & Impact and Global Trends — and trademarked the Global Plastics Ranking. Read his views and insights on the economy and the plastics industry at plasticsindustry.org.