After a Soft Start, Prices Are Firming

Polyolefin prices sledded downhill in December, while PVC skated on flat resin tabs. But last month saw the first signs that PP, PS, and PVC prices were climbing back uphill.

 

PE prices down

Polyethylene prices were moving down by about 4¢/lb in January, following a similar drop in December. That final slump left the net rise in prices for 2005 at about 28¢/lb.

The last announced price hike, of 5¢/lb, was delayed from Dec. 1 to Jan. 1 and then delayed again. A new date for implementation has not been set. Meanwhile, prices are rising on the London Metal Exchange. The LME short-term futures contract for February 18 in g-p blown-film butene LLDPE sold at 57.7¢/lb, up from January’s 51.26¢ and December’s 49.9¢/lb.

Contributing factors: Resin tabs moved downward due to relatively weak demand in December and early January, coupled with inventory drawdown by processors. “We expect that within the next 30 to 45 days, the drawdown of inventories will have been completed,” said one major supplier in mid-January.

Industry sources concur that upward movement in prices is likely to recur once the inventory correction is worked out, possibly as early as the second quarter. Inventory restocking alone should prompt demand growth of 3% to 4% this year, and overall growth could reach 5% to 6%. Plant utilization rates, now reported to be somewhere in the 80% to 90% range, are expected to settle around 90% to 95% as the year progresses.

Despite lower spot prices for ethylene monomer in December, January contract prices were generally expected to remain at the December level of 56.5¢/lb. Several scheduled plant turnarounds taking place within the next three months are expected to keep monomer supply tight.

 

PP prices lower, too

Polypropylene prices dropped an average of 2¢ to 3¢/lb in December, although discounts of as much as 5¢ to 6¢ were widespread. But firming prices were evident early last month when most major suppliers issued a 4¢/lb price hike for Feb. 1.

LME’s February short-term futures contract for g-p injection-grade homopolymer rose to 53.2¢/lb, after a slight dip in January to 47.85¢ from December’s 48¢/lb.

Contributing factors: Lower resin tabs resulted from December’s propylene monomer contract prices dropping 5¢/lb, coupled with sluggish end-of-year demand and processors drawing down inventories. However, demand rebounded last month by about 20%, according to some suppliers, and is projected to continue on this path. Suppliers expect their plant utilization rates to run in the 90% to 95% range.

On the other side of the coin, slumping monomer prices will exert downward pressure on resin prices. At press time, proposed January contract prices were 4.5¢ lower than the month before.

 

PVC flat in January

January without a PVC price hike is a seasonal anomaly. But OxyChem’s attempt at a 4¢ hike on Jan. 1 met no support. (Formosa had led the market down 2¢ in December by announcing a price cut.) Instead, Shintech announced a 2¢ increase for Feb. 1, supported by Georgia Gulf and Formosa Plastics. OxyChem was considered likely to go along once Formosa made its move.

Contributing factors: At the end of January, OxyChem was due to shut down its 300-million-lb/yr PVC plant in Scotford, Alberta, in conjunction with Dow Chemical’s closure of a Canadian vinyl chloride monomer plant. With mild winter weather, gas futures were trending down and expected to be lower in February and March. January PVC demand was not bad but weaker than in December.

 

PS hikes announced

Polystyrene resin producers all supported a 6¢/lb increase for Feb. 1, except Chevron Phillips, which announced a 5¢ hike for that date. Whether producers go with 5¢ or 6¢ depends on where benzene prices are headed. Meanwhile, EPS prices were flat in January.

Contributing factors: Benzene rose from $2.18/gal in December to $2.46 in January, with spot benzene as high as $2.65/gal. (A 10¢ change in benzene cost equals roughly 1¢ for styrene monomer or PS.) EPS prices are sensitive to Asian imports, but Asian prices are firming. 

 

Market Prices Effective Mid-Jan A

RESIN GRADEb ¢/LB ¢/CU INc    ABS           MED IMPACT    80 - 90      3.0 - 3.4       HI IMPACT    85 - 125      3.2 - 4.7       X-HI IMPACT    95 - 140      3.6 - 5.3       HI HEAT    85 - 110      3.8       PIPE    85 - 110      3.2 - 4.1       SHEET    90 - 110      3.4 - 4.2       TRANSPARENT    125 - 165      4.9 - 6.4       FITTINGS    85 - 115      3.2 - 4.3       PLATING    95 - 105      3.5 - 3.9       FLAME RET    120 - 140      4.6 - 5.9       STRUCT FM    83 - 97      3.6 - 4.3       10% GLASS    125 - 140      5.0 - 5.6       30% GLASS    116 - 136      5.3 - 6.3       ABS/PC ALLOY    145 - 180      5.5 - 6.8       ABS/PVC ALLOY    130 - 135      5.8 - 6.1       ABS/NYLON ALLOY    190      7.3       ACETAL           HOMOPOL    130 - 147      6.7 - 7.3       20% GLASS    160 - 220      9.0 - 12.4       COPOLYMER    133 - 145      6.8 - 7.4       25% GLASS    160 - 230      8.1 - 11.7       ACRYLIC           G-P    117      5.0       IMPACT    192      8.2       ACRYLONITRILE COPOL           EXTRUSION    101 - 116      4.0 - 4.6       INJECTION    120 - 135      4.8 - 5.4       ALKYD  65 - 74    4.9 - 5.5       CELLULOSICS           ACETATE    187      8.6       CAB    189      8.2       CAP    189      8.2       DAP (G-P)  251 - 497    16.7 - 34.7       EPOXY           G-P RESIN    116 - 126      NAd       COMPOUNDS               C/B/Te    123 - 166      9.4 - 12.9       R/C/Df    208 - 271      15.3 - 20.1       SEMICONDUCTOR               NOVOLAC    193 - 228      13.1 - 15.9       ANHYDRIDE    188 - 268      13.9 - 19.2       EVA           INJECTION    46 - 52      1.5 - 1.7       FILM EXTRU    42 - 49      1.4 - 1.6       EVOH  265    11.3       FLUORO-POLYMER           CTFE    2500 - 5500     193 - 424       ECTFE    1470 - 1680     93.1 - 107.7      ETFE    1155 - 1680     70.7 - 102.8      FEP    971 - 1470      74.8 - 113.2      PFA    1785 - 2520     134.9 - 190.5       PTFE    450 - 900      34.8 - 69.7       PVDF    680 - 900      43.3 - 57.3       IONOMER           PACKAGING    127 - 166      4.3 - 6.0       INDUSTRIAL    150 - 244      5.0 - 8.3       LIQUID-CRYSTAL POLYMERS           INJECTION MIN FILLED    690 - 1035      44.2 - 72.1       GLASS FILLED    695 - 895      40 - 52       CARBON FILLED    1700 - 2000     83.2 - 138.6      UNFILLED    1000 - 1200     58 - 70       EXTRUSION UNFILLED    1200 - 2200     60.5 - 110.9      MELAMINE COMPOUND  90 - 94    5.5 - 5.6       MELAMINE/PHENOLIC COMPOUND  75 - 83    4.5 - 5.0       NYLON           TYPE 6    139 - 159      5.7 - 6.5       MIN FILLED    131 - 144      5.4 - 5.9       30% GLASS    148 - 173      6.0 - 7.0       TYPE 66    153 - 168      6.3 - 6.9       MIN FILLED    151 - 159      6.2 - 6.5       30% GLASS    142 - 192      5.8 - 7.9       TYPE 69    250 - 276      9.7 - 10.7       TYPE 6/10    286 - 313      12.4 - 13.6       TYPE 612    400      15.3       30% GLASS    309 - 311      14.7       40% GLASS    309      14.7       TYPE 46    295      12.6       TYPE 11    329 - 341      13.6 - 14.1       30% GLASS    331 - 350      15.0 - 15.8       40% GLASS    347 - 360      17.7 - 18.5       TYPE 12    318 - 341      12.1 - 13.0       30% GLASS    327 - 350      14.7 - 15.8       50% GLASS    299 - 340      15.6 - 17.8       TRANSPARENT AMORPHOUS    247 - 360      10.3 - 15.0       PHENOLIC MOLD COMP  75    3.8       REINFORCED GRADES    105 - 268      6.1 - 16       POLYAMIDE-IMIDEg           UNFILLED    2750      148.5       30% GLASS    2500      135       30% CARBON FIB.    3500      185       POLYARYLATE  200 - 280    8.8 - 12.3       POLYARYL SULFONE  440    21.8       POLYBUTYLENE           G-P    94 - 96      3.1       FILM    88 - 91      2.9       PIPE               COLD WATER    116 - 120      3.9 - 4.0       HOT WATER    162 - 166      5.5 - 5.6       POLYCARBONATE           INJECTION    138 - 165      5.9 - 7.0       20% GLASS    177 - 190      7.6 - 8.2       30% GLASS    178 - 217      7.6 - 9.3       EXTRUSION    145 - 180      6.3 - 7.8       BLOW MOLD    155 - 190      6.7 - 8.2       STRUCT FOAM    149 - 181      6.4 - 7.8       20% GLASS    235 - 255      10.1 - 11.0       FR    166 - 197      7.1 - 8.5       CD    140 - 200      6.0 - 8.6       POLYESTER (TP) PBT TYPE           UNFILLED    143 - 150      6.9       HI-IMP    154 - 165      7.6       30% GLASS, FR    185 - 207      11.9       STRUCT FOAM    159 - 165      NAd       PET           BOTTLE (RAILCAR)    84 - 87      4.3 - 4.4       MOD PET               30% GLASS    132 - 143      7.4       55% GLASS    148 - 155      9.8       30% GLASS FLAME RET    147 - 157      9.2       PETG COPOL    114 - 124      5.2 - 5.6

RESIN GRADEb ¢/LB ¢/CU INc    POLYESTER THERMOSET           G-P ORTHO    135 - 140      NAd       ISOPHTHALIC    160 - 170      NAd       BIS-A    205 - 210      NAd       PEEK  4400    231       30% GLASS    3300      173       POLYETHERIMIDE  641 - 646    29.3 - 29.5       30% GLASS    526 - 531      24.0 - 24.2       POLYETHERKETONE (PEK)  2950    130.1       30% GLASS    2600      153       POLYETHERSULFONE  350 - 400    17.2 - 19.7       30% GLASS    425 - 525      21 - 25.9       POLYETHYLENE (RAILCAR) LDPE           G-P MOLDING & EXTRU    86 - 88     2.8 - 2.9      INJECTION    89 - 91     2.9 - 3.0      LID RESIN    91 - 93     3.0 - 3.1      LINER    87 - 89     2.9      CLARITY    85 - 87     2.8 - 2.9      EXTRU COATG    89 - 91     2.9 - 3.0      BLOW MOLD    91 - 93     3.0 - 3.1      LLDPE, BUTENE BASED           G-P MOLDING    75 - 77     2.5 - 2.6      LME 30-DAYj    77 - 79      2.6       FILM    57.7     1.9      ROTOMOLD    79 - 81     2.6 - 2.7      LLDPE, HAO-BASED           G-P MOLDING    89 - 91     2.9 - 3.0      LID RESIN    90 - 92     3.0      LINER FILM    92 - 94     3.0 - 3.1      HDPE           G-P INJ MOLD    76 - 78     2.6 - 2.7      FILM    86 - 88     2.9 - 3.0      BLOW MOLD    80 - 82     2.7 - 2.8      HMW-HDPE           BLOW MOLDING    85 - 87     2.9 - 3.0      FILM    87 - 89     3.0      PIPE    92 - 94     3.0 - 3.1      UHMW-PE  100 - 125    3.6 - 3.7       PPE/PPO BASED RESIN           INJECTION    180      6.8       20% GLASSh    283      12.3       30% GLASSh    291      13.3       EXTRUSIONh    242      9.2       STRUCT FM    231      NAd       PPS           40% GLASS    357 - 404      21.2 - 24.0       55% GLASS/MINERAL    289 - 310      20.8 - 22.3       65% GLASS/MINERAL    226 - 273      15.5 - 18.7       POLYPROPYLENE (RAILCAR)           G-P HOMOPOL INJECTION    77 - 79     2.5 - 2.6      LME 30-DAYj    53.2      1.7       EXTRUSION FIBER    76 - 78     2.5      PROFILES    81 - 83     2.6 - 2.7      RANDOM COPOL               BLOW MOLDING    82 - 84     2.7      FILM    83 - 85     2.7 - 2.8      INJECTION    80 - 82     2.6 - 2.7      IMPACT COPOL               MED IMP    91 - 94     2.9 - 3.0      HI IMP    94 - 98     3.0 - 3.2      POLYSTYRENE (RAILCAR)           G-P CRYSTAL    70 - 78      2.6 - 2.9       HI HEAT    73 - 81      2.7 - 3.0       HIPS    71 - 79      2.7 - 3.0       SUPER HI IMP    81 - 87      3.0 - 3.3       FR    89 - 97      3.3 - 3.6       STRUCT FM (FR)    105 - 108            EPS           UNMODIFIED    85 - 88      NAd       MODIFIED    86 - 90      NAd       POLYSULFONE  605    27 - 27.3       10% GLASS 430 20.6    557 - 612      24.9 - 25       30% GLASS 372 20.01    557 - 562      24.9 - 25       POLYURETHANE (TP)           ESTER TYPE    185 - 255      8 - 11       ETHER TYPE    245 - 295      10.6 - 13       PU ISOCYANATES           POLYMERIC MDI    120 - 135      NAd       80/20 TDI    90 - 98      NAd       PVC RESIN (RAILCAR)           G-P HOMOPOL    59 - 61      NAd       PIPE    56 - 58      NAd       FILM    68 - 70      NAd       COPOLYMER FLOORING    75 - 77      NAd       DISPERSION HOMOPOLY    84 - 90      NAd       COPOLYMER    89 - 93      NAd       CPVC PIPE COMPOUND    119      NAd       PVDC           EXTRUDABLE    162      NAd       SILICONES           MOLD. COMP.    581 - 640      38.1 - 39.3       SPECIALTY GR.    891 - 3148     NAd       SILICONE/EPOXY    339 - 343      22.5 - 22.8       STYRENEACRYLIC  108 - 112    3.7 - 4.0       SAN (G-P)  66 - 74    2.5 - 2.8       STYRENE MALEIC ANHYDRIDE           G-P    110 - 115      4.2 - 4.3       HI IMP    130 - 140      4.2 - 4.5       FR    175 - 183      6.7 - 7.0       TP ELASTOMERS           OLEFINIC    70 - 76      2.4       POLYAMIDE    287 - 337      10.4 - 12.3       POLYESTER    200 - 310      8.8 - 13.6       STYRENIC    82 - 237      2.9 - 8.3       UREA MOLDING COMPOUND           BLACK & BROWN    76      3.8       WHITE & IVORY    81      4.0       VINYL ESTER           COR RES    195 - 207      NAd       HEAT & COR RES    220      NAd

KEY: Colored areas indicate pricing activity. An arrow () indicates direction of price change. aTruckload, unless otherwise specified. bUnfilled, natural color, unless otherwise specified. cBased on typical or average density. dNot applicable. eNovolac and anhydride grades for coils, bushings, transformers. fNovolac and anhydride grades for resisitors, capacitors, diodes. gIn quantities of 20,000 lb. h19,800-lb load. jLME 30-day futures contract for lots of 54,564 lb..