February Index Dips a Tiny Bit

Numbers in Perspective 

Although the Gardner Business Index (GBI) for plastics processing remains below the growth threshold of 50, the Q1 2024 average surpassed the previous quarter, suggesting a potentially less pessimistic outlook.
This perspective aligns with recent expectations for the macroeconomy.

In the latest Survey of Professional Forecasters from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, the forecast for U.S. economic growth in the first quarter has been revised upward to 2.1%, a significant increase from the previous 0.8%. While optimism prevails among forecasters regarding the U.S. economy, monthly changes in business indices may continue to exhibit varied movements or remain relatively stable. Such variability is inherent in monthly data.

Perc Pineda

The Industrial Production Index for nondurable consumer goods showed a favorable change, experiencing a 0.73% increase in January. This reversal follows the monthly downtrends seen in the previous two months. Given the extensive applications of plastic products and packaging in consumer goods, this current shift in direction is a positive development.

In the previous year, the economy surpassed its potential growth rate. Barring substantial adverse demand and supply shocks, a stable-to-positive trajectory in manufacturing activity is more probable than a downturn, reflecting the current macroeconomic outlook for this year.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Perc Pineda, Ph.D., chief economist of the Plastics Industry Association (PLASTICS), is an industry thought leader and PLASTICS’ primary expert and spokesperson on the U.S. and global economy, industry research, statistics, trends and forecasts. He produces PLASTICS’ two annual flagship publications — Size & Impact and Global Trends — and trademarked the Global Plastics Ranking. Read his views and insights on the economy and the plastics industry at plasticsindustry.org.